Shifting
India–US Ties and Balancing with Russia: Prospects
By Dr
Rajneesh Kumar
The
current times are testimony to the fact that the relations between India and
the United States are undergoing a dramatic transformation. The Indo-US ties that
were once a relationship marked by mistrust, suspicion and a tacit hostility
during the Cold War, subsequently evolved into a partnership often described as
“strategic” and “indispensable.” Alongside, India has also been resolute about
preserving its long-standing friendship with Russia, a country that has been
its principal Defence partner and an ally in critical moments of history. The
changing dynamics of India–US relations, set against the backdrop of the
enduring India–Russia partnership, presents the opportunities as well as
dilemmas for the framers as well as the practitioners of the Indian foreign
policy.
The Evolving
dynamics of Indo–US Relations
The
story of India–US ties can at best be understood in phases. During the Cold
War, the United States leaned towards Pakistan as its security partner in South
Asia, while India gravitated towards the erstwhile Soviet Union for political,
military and economic backing. Ironically, Washington viewed India’s policy of
non-alignment with suspicion, interpreting it as unspoken support for Moscow.
The 1971 Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, followed by
the Soviet military support during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, somewhat
appeared to deepen the India–US distancing.
The
end of the Cold War, the collapse of the erstwhile USSR and India’s economic
liberalisation in 1991, taken together created a new context. Gradually,
Washington saw India as an emerging market, a potential partner in Asia and
eventually, as a counterpoise to China. The 2005 India–US
Civil Nuclear Agreement became a turning point, which symbolised
Washington’s willingness to carve out exceptions in the global order for India.
Since then, India–US cooperation seemed deepening especially in Defence,
counterterrorism, technology and more recently, in critical areas like logistics
supply chains, artificial intelligence and climate action.
Lately,
India and the United States described each other as “comprehensive global
strategic partners”. The regular military exercises, defence agreements such as
Logistics
Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), Communications Compatibility
and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Basic Exchange and
Cooperation Agreement (BECA) and forums like the QUAD, underscored the growing
alignment.
During
Obama regime subsequently followed by the Trump 1.0 administration, Washington
openly supported India’s rise as a major power and its rise as a key player in
the Indo-Pacific region.
India
Still Valuing Russian friendship
While
India–US ties were blossoming, New Delhi remained careful not to ignore its
friendship with Moscow. The India–Russia partnerships stand deeply rooted in the
history of trust and practical dependence, and the bond still stands strong.
Ø Defence
Cooperation. Nearly 60–70% of India’s existing military
inventory is of Russian origin. A major part of the Russian platforms forming
Indian military inventory ranging from the fighter jets and tanks to submarines
and missiles, remains vital to India’s Defence preparedness. Even with
diversification of the supply sources to the US, France and Israel, Russia still
offers not only the hardware but also the technologies that the US has
historically been reluctant to part with.
Ø Strategic
Support. During crisis situations, Russia has stood strong by
India. In 1971, the Russian vetoes in the UN Security Council were crucial to facilitate
India’s war efforts. More recently, Moscow has supported India’s stance on
issues like Kashmir.
Ø Energy
and Economics. Russia is a key partner in nuclear energy
cooperation and since the Ukraine war, has become a major source of discounted
oil for India, helping cushion the impact of global energy shocks. This has
irked the US administration to a large extent but India continues to boldly
follow its strategic autonomy and, correctly term is as, strategic assertiveness.
Ø Multipolarity
and Autonomy. For India, Russia represents more than just a friend
or a bilateral partner. Moscow is a key player in forums like BRICS, SCO and Russia–India–China
(RIC) trilateral, which resonate with the vision of a multipolar world order
where the West perhaps may not dominate.
The
Ukraine War and New Strains
The
war in Ukraine has complicated India’s balancing act between USA and Russia.
Washington and its allies have been exerting pressure on New Delhi to distance
itself from Moscow, directly or indirectly portraying Russia as an aggressor
and violator of the international norms. India, however, has taken a cautious
line of abstaining from voting against Russia in UN, besides continuing to buy
Russian oil and stressing upon the dialogue and diplomacy to end the ongoing
war.
This
stance has attracted the ire of the West as what they term as the moral
ambiguity. But it is consistent with India’s foreign policy philosophy of
strategic autonomy. It is so because, for India aligning fully with
Washington’s position would mean alienating Moscow, which might result into the
possibility of pushing Russia closer to China. Such an eventuality may lead to
a scenario that would directly undermine the Indian interests. Yet, continued
closeness to Moscow is also fraught with risks of friction with the US and
Europe, the support whereof India increasingly relies upon, so as to
counterbalance the China factor.
Changing
India-US Dynamics
The
United States and the world today view India less through the lens of South
Asia and more as an emerging Indo-Pacific power. China’s rise and assertiveness
have been the single most important factor driving this shift. For Washington,
India’s large military, with its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and its
growing global heft makes it an indispensable determinant in shaping the course
of the Asian geopolitics.
The US
has also appears to have softened its stance on issues like human rights or
India’s domestic politics, choosing pragmatism over ideology. The emphasis is more
upon Defence partnerships, technology transfers, resilient supply chains and
cooperation in the emerging domains such as space and cyber technologies.
Initiatives like Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET)
reflect this forward-looking agenda of the USA. However, despite all this, the
US continues to remain wary of India’s deep ties with Russia.
Implications
of the Recent Big Power Dynamics for India.
India’s
dual and tricky dynamics with the US and Russia has significant implications: -
Ø Strategic
Autonomy under Test. India’s ability to maintain “multi-alignment” or
the Strategic Autonomy has been put to test. The closer India moves to the US,
the harder it might become for it to explain its ties with Russia. Conversely,
staying too close to Russia also involves the risk of being seen as an odd man
in the Western camp.
Ø Defence
Modernisation Challenges. India needs to reduce over-dependence on
Russia without jeopardising its immediate operational needs. Diversification is
the need of the hour but it requires availability of sufficient resources,
technology access and an enhanced industrial capability which actually happen
to be the areas where the US and other European partners can be of help.
Ø Energy
and Economic Interests. Russian oil imports have given India some economic
relief, but they also create vulnerability if Western sanctions harden. At the
same time, US investments, technology partnerships and market access are collectively
critical to India’s growth trajectory.
Ø Geopolitical
Positioning. India’s choices would affect its credibility as
a global player. Its stance on Ukraine is seen by some as that of a fence-sitter,
whereas by others, as a demonstrator of pragmatic independence. The deftness
with which India is able to navigate this, will in all probability shape its
image in the Global South, where many countries share the skepticism of the Western
dominance.
Ø China
Factor. Given a chequered history, the biggest challenge for India
is China. Here, the US is a natural partner, while Russia’s tilt towards
Beijing since the Ukraine war seems to have complicated the matters. If Russia
continues to deepen its embrace with China, India may find its traditional
partner perhaps less reliable in the hour of need. However recently India is
seen intelligently inching towards China, which in fact is the prudent course of
action.
The
Way Forward
We
need to understand unambiguously that there are no permanent friends or foes in
the international politics. What is permanent is the National Interest, which
remains paramount, always and every time. India’s present challenge therefore is
not to choose between the US and Russia but to wisely handle both the sides in the
ways that may maximise its national interests. A few possibilities emerge:
Ø Defence
Diversification with Continuity. India should accelerate
partnerships with the US, France and others in Defence manufacturing, while at
the same time carefully manage the legacy fleet through temporary dependencies
on Russia. The Co-production and indigenous innovations under “Atmanirbhar
Bharat” contain the key to reduce the vulnerabilities, and therefore need to be
followed up by India even more vigorously.
Ø Pragmatic
Diplomacy towards Ukraine: India must continue calling for the dialogue
while at the same time avoiding taking of sides at all costs. It is also
important because, India’s credibility as a mediator or peace lover or voice of
the Global South depends upon maintaining the balance amidst opposing forces.
Ø Deepening
US Ties Beyond Security: By avoiding the over-militarisation through
the India–US defence partnerships, New Delhi may consider pushing for deeper
cooperation in the other spheres like trade, climate action, digital technology
and education. This would potentially make the relationship more broad-based thereby
reducing the risk of India being taken as hostage to the mid-course strategic
shocks.
Ø Recalibrating
with Russia: While Russia may continue drifting closer to
China, India should still continue cultivating the diverse areas of cooperation
particularly in energy and regional security through multipolar platforms like
BRICS. Keeping communication channels constantly open with China would also
cement India’s strategic choices whereby no country can take India’s diplomatic
choices for granted.
The
Final Word
India’s
foreign policy today operates in a world marked by renewed version of the great-power
rivalry, shifting alliances and contested global norms. The US sees India as a
partner in shaping the Indo-Pacific, while Russia remains a legacy friend and
supplier. The task before New Delhi is now therefore to consciously balance both
these relationships without being forced into making binary choices.
We
know that India has never been a camp follower and is recently emerging as an
important voice in the international affairs. Therefore, in many ways, this becomes
a test of India’s vision of being an emerging global power. By combining
pragmatism with long-term strategic foresight, there are prospects of India being
able to sustain its historical bonds with Russia, deepen its partnership with
the US and at the same time, maintain its strategic autonomy, which, of late, are
emerging to be the hallmark of its foreign policy. India’s choices in the coming
decade would determine whether India can successfully perform this delicate
balancing act, an act that will shape not only its own destiny but also the
future contours of the global order, that India is likely to influence.
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